The Massive Cancer Blood Test Opportunity

The mythical “cure for cancer” is often misunderstood. It’s not one wonder drug for the more than 200 types of cancer out there. Each person’s cancer is unique and accompanied by a distinct genetic fingerprint that can be targeted using personalized medicine. These often take the form of expensive cancer drugs, and investing in these drug developers means exposure to lots of external risk factors that can’t be controlled which create lots of volatility. As risk averse investors, we want to reduce volatility.

Perhaps the easiest cure for cancer is simply early detection. Take breast cancer, for instance. A study on early detection showed that “personal cure is achieved for the great majority” when cancer is detected in the earliest stages. As the most common form of cancer, this means regular mammograms are imperative. But what if one cancer blood test could detect nearly all common types of cancers?

There are estimated to be around 148.6 million people over 40 in the USA. If we assume that 3/4 of them get a physical each year, and use a modest cancer screening cost of $999, then that’s a potential $110 billion market opportunity in the United States alone. Then add to that the 40% of men and women who will be diagnosed with cancer at some point during their lives, and the TAM for cancer blood tests becomes massive. But not all cancer blood tests are created equal.

Three Types of Cancer Blood Tests

There are three broad categories of cancer blood tests – those that detect cancers at the earliest stages, those that provide a genetic fingerprint of the cancer type (also called a liquid biopsy) to inform personalized cancer treatments, and those that test for recurrence (is the cancer staying away). Initial detection tests will have the highest TAM ̵