Is Autonomy a Threat or an Opportunity for Uber?

Consensus seems to be that vehicle autonomy will unlock trillions of dollars in value, but there are opposing arguments as well. Reducing the cost of ride-sharing platforms – what are essentially taxis – won’t necessarily increase demand. Will vehicle autonomy create new opportunities, or just replace existing human drivers and improve the cost-of-goods-sold for existing service providers? To answer that question, we need to look at various use cases.

Consider long-haul trucking. Enabling autonomy may decrease the cost of truck transportation which increases demand, but that’s just stealing from other modes of transport. When it comes to passenger transportation, ARK Invest speculates that low pricing will create excessive demand for ride sharing from people who prefer to rent than own. Perhaps, but a more certain opportunity would be the cost savings for routes currently being serviced by on-demand ride sharing services like Uber (UBER). Today, we want to understand if autonomous technology is an opportunity or a threat for Uber across the three segments they operate in – mobility, delivery, and freight.

Uber’s Three Divisions

While Uber is traditionally associated with carrying passengers (mobility), around 33% of their revenues come from delivering food/goods (delivery) while a much smaller fraction – about 14% of 2023 revenues – comes from connecting truckers with customers (freight).

The noticeable drop in freight revenues was said to be “due to lower revenue p