Guardant Stock Plummets on Study Results

You know your consumer product is scaling when Katie Couric gives it a shout out. It’s even better when the product relates to something Ms. Couric feels very strongly about – colon cancer. Her husband died of colon cancer at the age of 42 in 1998. Several years later, Ms. Couric had a live colonoscopy performed on the “Today” show which sparked “a surge in colon cancer screenings doctors nicknamed the Katie Couric effect.” That’s according to an article by Fierce Biotech that talks about the timely relationship between Exact Sciences (EXAS) and Katie Couric Media.

The campaign comes as the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force last May lowered the recommended colorectal cancer screening age from 50 to 45. The change makes an additional 45 million Americans eligible for screening—and opens up a bigger potential market for Cologuard. 

Credit: Exact Sciences

While the math doesn’t seem to add up according to age category population numbers (it’s more like 20 million Americans aged 45 to 49) it’s still a big number. If half that population tested annually at a cost of $500 per test, that’s a recurring revenue stream of $5 billion that’s waiting to be captured. However, the American Cancer Society recommends a screening interval every 3 years with Cologuard following a negative result, so the $5 billion every three years represents a $1.66 billion annual run rate.

Exact Sciences is engaged in a giant push towards getting more Americans to screen for colon can