Every new technology goes through a predictable cycle when it comes to moving from initial innovation to commercial adoption. That’s what global research and advisory firm Gartner decided to model with their “Gartner Hype Cycle” which has since been taught to MBAs around the globe. The Wikipedia entry that describes the Gartner Hype Cycle also references something called Amara’s law which states the following:
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run
That’s exactly what you can see in the below diagram which is often used to depict the Gartner Hype Cycle:
Gartner Hype Cycle – Credit: Gartner
While some pundits say that this doesn’t actually hold true when applied to the real-world, there are some examples of where it does fit. 3D printing technology, for example, was hyped to such an extent that many companies just started to attach themselves to the 3DP story by stating “an intent” to ente
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Nanalyze Premium is your comprehensive guide to investing in disruptive technologies. Read by the top investment banks, management consultancies, VCs, and research houses. Trusted by over 100,000 institutional and retail investors. Covering disruptive technologies for over 18 years.