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Dawn of the Nano-Age
by: Jae Kim
November 1, 2004
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Page: 1 2 3 4
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So where do we now stand in terms of progress? It depends on what area of the
nanotech spectrum you are looking at. That spectrum ranges from the tangible,
(e.g. water repellent clothing), to futuristic visions of nanobots that may
take decades to develop. Drexler proposes such a future with small nano-factories
that assemble matter atom by atom.
This brings up an important question. Drexler's future seems realizable to some
and a fantastic pipe dream to many. Which is it? It is literally a
trillion dollar question.
Today, no one can say for sure whether we will ever achieve the notion of self
assembly with nano-factories manufacturing matter atom by atom precisely by design.
And even though Drexler's nano-factory may appear a work of science fiction, we must
look at history to put his predictions in perspective.
In 1530, Nicolas Copernicus published his most famous work, De Revolutionibis, which
asserted that the earth revolves around the sun and not the other way around. It was
a novel and fantastic assertion that smashed the prevailing conviction of man as the
center of the universe. About 200 years later, Galileo was imprisoned for professing
Copernicus' theories. Galileo's persecution proceeded from the Church and from
society's elite, who believed they knew better.
History gives us many examples of Establishment's refusal to accept novel ideas that
went against the grain of the accepted norm. Ignorance though it can be removed by
demonstration and education, is a powerful impediment to the acceptance of revolutionary
ideas. It is the nature of an "Establishment" that what makes sense and provides a
feeling of security must be the absolute truth. But history is filled with the lives
of geniuses whose discoveries and theories, with the test of time, showed the fallacy
of Established human "wisdom."
This is not to insinuate an unconditional support for Drexler, but rather, the purpose
is to give Drexler a fair hearing. Because in the end, only God knows what the future
holds. And since He is not telling us, only time will tell whether Drexler becomes
immortalized as one of the great scientific visionaries of history, or is cast aside
as a nano-alchemist footnote. What's certain is that Drexler's visions are huge. And
progressive leaps cannot happen in our society without grand visionaries.
What does all this mean for investors?
Imagine that you are surveying the industrial landscape during the 18th and 19th
centuries. Without knowing what the future held, you would be wide-eyed at the pace
of innovation. Steam engines, electricity, steam boats, railroads, and so many more.
It was the beginning of the industrial revolution which gave birth to the modern age.
Since that time, there have been innovational phases when we lurched forward in specific
areas of life. For example, automobiles and airplanes improved travel. Computers
increased work efficiency. Telephones, then cell phones and then the Internet
dramatically increased our ability to communicate. Medical discoveries eliminated major
diseases. Nylon and plastics brought us new consumer goods.
Yet, given all the new inventions and discoveries over the past 100 years, there has
not been a singular inflection point that supported a massive, holistic uplifting of
society as was seen during the industrial revolution.
That is, until now.
Let's backtrack to December 3, 2003. That is the date that President Bush signed into
law the 21st Century Nanotechnology Research and Development Act, providing $3.7 billion
beginning in 2005 and spread over 4 years. This act is the culmination of a decade of
steadily increased funding for nanotechnology by the U.S. Government. The money will
fund research at universities, provide grants for R&D at private companies, support work
by various federal departments such as Defense, Energy, and others. It is the largest
governmental funding of scientific projects since the space program.
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